09-03-13 Cubist (CBST)

$600m (+100m) 2 tranche sen unsec cb coming tomorrow from MS/BARC Terms: <5y> 1⅝-2⅛% <7y> 2⅛-2⅝% up 27½-32½%,full pctns.UOP= OPTR/TSRX acq/cb hedge. OPTR acq=earnings accretive thru Dificil but our analyst is less enthused by the TSRX acq given generic competition over it’s main Tedzolid antibiotic. PFcash=890m,debt =1.05bn, LTMebitda=196m, FCF=150m. OPTR=credit +ve, we’d assume

L+450/500 respectively (see CREDIT COLOR). ADV=820k, no leaps, s/term acq vol spike but improving credit so we’d cap vol at 32. Theo=<5>=101.2/103.2/105.2 <7>=100.7/103.2/105.7. Mkt needs more of the same w/clear broad appeal 4 both o/r & hedge. A single $600m deal preferable over 2 tranches given UBS index support    but this deal in either form is going to perform well.

 

Cap Structure (PF 6/30/13)

Cash                 890mm

2.5% Convert         450mm

New Converts         600mm                                                                                                                                      Total Debt          1050mm

LTM EBITDA           196mm

Gross Leverage        5.3x

LTM FCF              150mm

– CBST is a major player in anti-invectives. Its main drug (95% of revs) is Cubicin.  Cubinin is indicated for treatment of skin infections and gram positive bacteria infections.

 

– The use of proceeds is to fund the purchase of OPTR and TSRX (and a call spread).  OPTR main drug is Dificid.  Dificid treats diarrhea cause by C Diff (a bacteria people generally pick up after surgery).  C Diff has become more virulent since the 90s and 5% of patients die after contracting it. Our equity analyst is “perplexed” by the TSRX acquisition as they are facing nearer term generic competition. Last week, a competitor also filed to make a generic form of Cubicin.

 

– With a ton of cash on balance sheet, and strong FCF (which will go lower after closing of OPTR/TSRX deals, as they currently burn cash) the credit is fairly strong.  Generic competition is always a concern.

 

– OUR ASSIGNED CREDIT SPREADS—> 450 AND 500 (5 AND 7 YEAR, RESPECTIVELY).

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