$550m (+50m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from CITI/UBS. Terms: 5yr 2.5% up 35-45%, put 3y, s/call @130% 3y, full pctns. UOP = GCP
Stock +185% since 03/13 low, +4.4 fold since 01/12 & a $9.7B market cap.
China & US cb mkt= uneasy history w/US shell hold co vs. assets domiciled away but tough to compare QIHU to SDTH, SINO or CMED.
Comps = SINA or BIDU
LTM ebitda = 100m
2013 est = $184m
Lev = 3x 2013 est.
LTM FCF = 100m
We’d assume L+600 (if it were a domestic credit we’d comfortably use L+300).
ADV = 2.2m
0/15 listed > 50iv, we’d assume 40 vol.
Brw = GC but -1.75 in 05/13.
Theo = 105.7
Lack of Asian primary = regional demand, size = index inclusion, u believe nos = great hf set-up.
-ve = despite size and deep stk coverage (we have $100 price target), investors may still be cautious.