04-24-13 Penny Mac (PMT)

 

$200m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from CS/MER/CITI. Terms: 7yr. 5.25-5.75% up 20-25%, full protections. UOP = portfolio and gcp. Convert market heating up with chase for yield. Recent comps = IVR & closer comp RWT (better credits). IVR came 03/13 5% +15%, now x/par +14%. RWT came 02/13 4.625% +20%, x/par +40% (bad IVR performance vs RWT caused by tech issues. IVR are a buy here now). PMT specializes in distressed mortgages, attempting to move into jumbo market. We used L+500 for IVR, L+600 for RWT (static 20d = L+400 today). We’d assume L+650 for PMT. ADV = 890k, no leaps, 2 yr 90d 50/10ile = 21/18%. s/dated vol in sctr has picked up. We’d use 22 vol albeit not so much a model trade . Theo = 101.9. Hot sector with industry x/over interest but we prefer 5% +13 IVR over 5.5% +22.5% PMT

 

Daiwa New Issue Credit Color: PennyMac Mortgage Inv Tr <—

* REIT focused on residential mortgage loans & related assets.

* PF Cash   $274mm    PF Debt    $1811mm    LTM EBITDA    $219mm

LTM FCF   $(820)mm  Debt/Cap   60%        Mkt Cap      $1406mm

* PMT has 2 biz – correspondent lend where they are intermediary

between mort lenders and cap mkts & distressed assets which is

primarily nonperforming res mortgage loans. Benefitting from

recovery in res mortgage mkt. While orig vols have been down

recently, growth has been driven by gains from resolution of

distressed loans & growth in servicing from correspondent biz.

Debt is all s/t repurchase agreements. Conv provides some l/t

financing. Entry to jumbo mort sec mkt provides new opp.

* Our assigned spread —>L+650<—  Src: Bloomberg, Co Filing

 

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