Topic Archives: Convert New Issue Analysis

Convertible bonds new issues usually drive-by deals whereas most new high yield and loan issues go through a 1-2 week road show. This is becuase a large part of a convertible bond’s valuation is equity and requires less credit/indenture analysis. Most convertible bonds do not have financial covenants. Once a deal is announced, investors have a short amount of time (usually 1 day or less) to perform a quick and dirty analysis on the deal. Daiwa does a good job of this type of analysis and I have documented most of it here. Exceptions are clearly stated.

5-29-13 Concur (CNQR)

$350m (+52.5m) sen unsec cb coming Wed night from CS/JPM/DB. Terms: 5 yr, 0.5%-1%, 27.5-32.5%, full pctn. UOOP = note hedge/GCP. Though lots of cash (PF = 806m) w/PF debt = $638m and PF EBITDA $38m, lev is high, can co has plans for acquisition. We’ll use L+350 ADV = 546k, 2 yr 90d 50/10 […]

5-29-13 Priceline (PCLN)

$1B (+150m) sr converts coming overnight/happy meal from GS. Terms: re-offer at 98.5-99. 7 year bullet, 0.35 up 66%, full pctns, UOP = share buyback /GCP @98.5: 0.57% up 63.5%. We’ll use 120 for 7 yr, 30 vol. GC borrow, Theo = 95.3 and 35 iv. The existing 1% got crushed today ahead of this […]

5-28-13 FXCM (FCXM)

$125m (19m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from CS. Terms: 5yr, 2.25%-2.75% up 27.5% – 32.5%, full pctns, UOP = repay $80m revolver/note hedge Largest retail FX broker in US & Asia w/75% of revenue coming from retail. Agency model limits risk. Generated $102m operating CF in FY 12 and current cash = $273m We’ll […]

5-23-13 Infinera

$100m (15m) sen unsec cb coming Thurs from MS/GS Terms: 5yr 1.75-2.25% up 32.5-37.5%, full pctns, UOP= GCP/working capital/strategy projects. CB is only debt but LTM EBITDA = -$54m and LTM FCF = -82m Co expects 20% revenue growth in 2013 & profitability within 2 years but has history of falling short of expectations. We […]

5-16-13 Tesla (TSLA)

$450m (+67.5) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS/JPM/GS. Terms: 5yr, 2-2.5% up 30-35%, full pctns. 2.7 stk placement (Musk intends to take 500k). UOP = repay DOE loan. Stk +158% ytd boosted by good Q1 numbers (stk +50% in last 5 days w/short covering playing a major factor) 115m shares o/standing w/only 66m free […]

5-15-13 Shutterfly (SFLY)

  $220m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS?JPM. Terms: 0.25-0.75% up 27.5-32.5%. full protections. UOP = 30m stock buyback, acquisition & note hedge. Stock up 47% ytd w/stock up 20% after Q4 earnings in Feb. Roll-off of cb market picks up this month (6B within 4 weeks) so new paper vital. Interesting equity; […]

5-14-13 Ryland (RYL)

$250m (+37.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from CITI/JPM. Terms: 6yr, 0.25-0.75% up 45-50%, 4yr s/call (m/whole), full pctns. UOP = gcp/acq. Existing cb came 05/12 1.625% up 42.5% w/stock @$22.48 (stock up 70% since then). BIG model disparity btw ITM & ATM. ITM = existing RYL 1.625% & LEN 2.75%/3.25% cheap skew 2 listed […]

05-07-13 Alpha Natural (ANR)

$300m (+45m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from BARC/JPM/MER/CITI/ MS. Terms: 4.5y, 3¾ +50%, full pctns. UOP=debt buy back/gcp. We’ll be quick; Existing 2⅜% 15 went out ~95.5 pre-deal which backs out ~L+450, pari 9¾% ’18 with OAS of ~660. We’ll assume B+ and L+675. ADV=16.7m, 01/15 same delta calls ~60iv bid, 2y90d 10/50%ile=58/76%, we’ll […]

04-24-13 Penny Mac (PMT)

  $200m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from CS/MER/CITI. Terms: 7yr. 5.25-5.75% up 20-25%, full protections. UOP = portfolio and gcp. Convert market heating up with chase for yield. Recent comps = IVR & closer comp RWT (better credits). IVR came 03/13 5% +15%, now x/par +14%. RWT came 02/13 4.625% +20%, x/par +40% […]

04-11-13 RTI International Metals (RTI)

$250m (+37.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from BARC/CITI. Terms: 6.5 yrs, 1.625%-2.125% up 30-35%, pctns. UOP = gcp/cap ex/potential 3% buy back. Existing 3% trades rich 2 model due to outright ownership. -2.8% up 32% @116 vs cls = L+165 (30%), theo=110.65. Small but solid B credit w/good liquidity. Aerospace = 55% of rev […]