Jaguar Mining (JAG) 02/07/11

$90m (+13.5m) 144a senior unsec cb pricing tonight from BOA. Terms: 5yr bullet, 5.5-6% up 32.5-37.5, protections. Jaguar is a $500m mkt cap, emerging gold mining company w/3 producing mines in Brazil. UOP=to develop 4th time (Gurupi).
PF Cash = $136m,
PF Debt = $284m
LTM EBITDA = $22m
LTM FCF = neg $110m
They have a history of disappointing on guidance. So caution warranted.
Their o/s 4.5 of 2014 imply 750 over. We’ll use L+900.
See credit color
And will cap vol @35v. Stk brw is between neg 2-3% but should improve. We’ll use 200 bps at this juncture. Theo = 102.5
Small deal, strong demend for paper, incl possibly equity demand for this name
watch for possible upsize.
BUY

Daiwa New Issue Credit Color
Emerging gold mining company with producing mines in Brazil
PF Cash $136m
PF Debt $284m
LTM EBITDA $22m
LTM FCF -110m
Leverage 12.9x
Mkt Cap = $507m
JAG began ops in 2004 and now has 3 prod mines in brazil, last commissioned in May 2010. Co has a history of disappointing on prod and cost guide, which continued into 2010. FY prod 138oz, down from original guid of 200k to 217k & below 2009 prod of 155k, with all 3 mines falling short. Op issues likely to cont into 2011. Co raising cash to dev Gurupi (#4 mine). Pre-op cap ex estimate of $278m w/start up in 2013. EBITDA expected to ramp, but w/poor history it is hard to count on that.
Our assigned spread L+900

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