Old Republic (ORI) new issue 03/03/11

$250m (+37.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS/UBS. Terms: 7yr 3.5-4% up 30-35%, pctns (div > 0.175 qtr), concurrent $250m 10 yr str8 (L+250). UOP=repay debt/gcp. Existing 8% ’12 mostly held by o/r (6.8% up 13%@117 w/div pctn > 17c using L+100 = 23iv). Use L+200 for 7yr. No leaps, ADV=1.5m, 100w=29, 100d=21 so wont use more than 23 vol. Theo = 100.5. We were generous on inputs & model doesn’t like it. Given rating & mkt, that’s not what h/f’s want to hear. There will be o/r interest but to buy this on swap really would be lesson in greater fool theory. Structured well 4 o/r community & given technicals in IG space, we all know outcome over time. Know that u r buying fair to make rich. Want to say CHEAPs (wont happen) so push for mids.

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