Molycorp (MCP) new issue 06/08/11

$200m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming Thurs night from JPM/MS. Terms: 5yr, 3.25-3.75% up 27.5-32.5%, full pctns. Concurrent 10m stk. UOP = prod xpnsn/gcp. Good David vs Goliath story: China conrols 97% of the mkt w/its protectionism has created px spike. Mines idle since 2002. Will need $781m capex to YE13 to modernize. Sumitomo may prvide add’l capital.
PF Cash = 687m
debt =203m
LTM EBITDA =35m
FCF -73m

See credit color
We’d assume CCC and L+800.
We are always more conservative on vol w/credits like this esp when brw is not gc (~1% fee)
Can/will get tricky on way down
We’ll use 35%, being fully aware mkt will use higher.

Theo = 103.8/102 Mid/Rich using 100bp brw.
Lots of stk believers so expect to here interest. Another CB deal for eqty mkt. BUY

Western hemisphere’s only producer of rare earth oxides. Have mine & processing facility in CA & interest in EU facility.

PF Cash $687m
PF Debt $203m
LTM EBITDA -35m
LTM FCF -73m
Leverage NM
Mkt Cap $4925mm

MCP is start-up having acquired CA mine/fac sitting idle since ’02. Aggressive midernization & expan plan that will require $781m of cap-ex thru YE13. Expect prod ramp from 3k mt/yr to 40k. Conv proceeds plus $200m conv pfd issued in March & 8/10 IPO proceeds will fund large portion. Working on stock/loan deal with Sumitomo & DOE loan to provide add’l Key risks incl constuction, cost over runs & pricing of end products

Our assigned spread = L+800

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