05-15-15 TAL Education Group (XRS)

$200m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming tomorrow night from MS/DB/JPM.

Terms: 5y, 2¼-2¾% up 27½-32½, 3y put, full pctns. UOP=note hedge/gcp. $2bn after-school tutoring biz, founded ’03. Operates 274 learning/251 service centres &/it’s eduu.com online platform Stk +2.8x in

LTM.Stated PFcash=365m,

debt=200.8m,

LTMebitda=74.8m,

fcf=90m,

gross lev=2.7x.

Jef eqty analyst=BUY rating w/$30 target (using 30x ’15 P/E). It’s Xueersi brand is No1 in China.We think credit is better than 4.85y YY which backs out L+964 (40%) plus XRS is s/dated.We’d assume L+750 for 3y.ADV=340k, no leaps,1y100d /200d=50/44. Given low ADV, we’d assume 35% (brw -.5). Theo=102.1/103.8/105.5. Lots of theo value in over issued Chinternet/China so has little edge over SFUN/VIPS/EJ which are arguably better.

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