Topic Archives: Convert New Issue Analysis

Convertible bonds new issues usually drive-by deals whereas most new high yield and loan issues go through a 1-2 week road show. This is becuase a large part of a convertible bond’s valuation is equity and requires less credit/indenture analysis. Most convertible bonds do not have financial covenants. Once a deal is announced, investors have a short amount of time (usually 1 day or less) to perform a quick and dirty analysis on the deal. Daiwa does a good job of this type of analysis and I have documented most of it here. Exceptions are clearly stated.

03-11-14 VIPS (VIPS)

$400m (60m) sen unsec cb coming from GS. Terms: 5yr, 1.25-1.75% up 37.5-42.5%, 3yr put, full pctns. UOP = repay debt from acq/gcp. 8.82B online discount retailer thru its website Vipshop.com with stock +5.5x since 06/13 low.   PF Cash = 574m Debt = 401m LTM ebitda = 72m Gross lev – 5.5x & last […]

03-05-14 Encore Group (ECPG)

$125m (+18.75m) sen unsec (sub guarantee) coming tonight from MS   Terms: 7y, 2¾-3¼% up 22½-25½%, full pctns.UOP=note hedge/gcp $1.2bn consumer debt portfolio manager with 2 exist deals; $115m 3% 17 issued 11/12 up 25% w/stk @ $25¼.Stk +40% & $173m 3% 20 issued 06/13 up 30%. Stk +40% again & here we are. 3%/20 […]

02-27-14 UTI Worldwide (UTIW)

$350m (+50m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS/CITI. Terms: 5y 4½-5% up 30-35%, full pctns. Cncrrnt $175m 7% conv prfd shs to P2 Capital. UOP=repay ~$178m revolver/~$200m PRU 4.5% loan (lev ratio covnnts tripped).$1.5bn supply chain mgt provider w/global rev split=NA 34%/AFRICA 19%/ASIA 22%/EUR 25%. Macro env/costly exec of global system factors for poor […]

02-27-14 Tesla Motors (TSLA)

$1.6bn (+240m) sen unsec cb coming tomorrow from GS/MS/JPM/DB. Terms: <A> 5y, ¼-¾ <B> 7y, 1¼-1¾% up 37½-42½%, full pctns. UOP=note hedge/Gen III dvlpmnt. PARTIAL HAPPY MEAL. Stk +2.25x since existing $660m CB came 05/13 (1½% + 35%) & now ~209 (-1pt post announcement).LTM cash=2.34bn,debt=2.28bn,LTMebitda=44m (FY 14=422m est),lev=5.4x FY14 est. Existing CB=eqty at this pt […]

02-11-14 AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG)

$150m (+22.5m) sen unsec cb coming tomorrow from JPM/MS:Terms:5y 2¼-¾% up 30-35%, full pctns. UOP=note hedge/gcp. $460m biotech specializing in iron oxide nanoparticle tech w/it’s main drug, Feraheme representing ~70% of rev (FY13 sales=$71m & JEF analyst forecasting $121m FY20. PFcash=343m, debt=150m, LTMebitda=(.5m), FCF=(8.4m). We’d assume L+600. ADV=140k, no leaps, all historic vol metrics >50%. […]

02-05-14 NRG Yield (NYLD)

$300m (+45m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS/MER/GS/RBC. Terms 5y, 3-3.5% up 27.5-32.5%, full pctns (kinda). UOP = gcp/acq NRG Energy Assets. Former subsidiary of NRG ipo’s 07/13 @22 w/stock +71% t/d ($2.4B m/cap). Owns portfolio of renewable & conventional generation & thermal assets.   PF Cash = 421m Debt = 1.467B LTM ebitda […]

02-03-14 Herbalife (HLF)

$1bn (+150m) sen unsec cb coming tonite from MER/CS. Terms: 5.5y 1½-2% up 25-30%, full pctns. UOP=stk buy back, note hedge/gcp. HAPPY MEAL/1% TRS BRW. Let’s start here; HLF 2y(3/16) secured t/ loan is illiquid but quoted ~96 which=L+414. So then what should mkt use 4 a 5.5y unsec/cb at holdco? PFcash=892m,debt 1.95bn,LTM ebitda=795m,fcf=590m,gross lev=2.4x. […]

01-22-14 Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)

*********** $200m (+30m) sen cb coming tonite from JPM/BOA.Terms:7y,2⅝-3⅛% up 27½-32½%, S/C 4y @ 130% (m/whole),pctns.UOP=finance Cangene acq. $960m pharma specialising in biodefense vaccines (has the only FDA approved Anthrax vaccine (Stk +100% from 04/13 low).Acq exp 2 close 1Q 14 & will help diversify product mix (will add 3 more products incl within the […]

01-22-14 Colony Financial (CLNY)

$200m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming o/night from MS. 7y, 3⅝-4⅛% up 10-15%, s/call y5 @ 130%, full pctns. UOP=repay revolver/acq/ gcp. Stk +10% already ytd. Existing 10y $200m CB came 04/13, 5% up 10% w/stk @ $21.45 (s/callable w/130% trigger 04/20). Went out ~107.5 vs 22.06 they back out ~L+356 using a generous 20vol.  […]

12-16-13 TTM Technologies (TTMI)

$150m (22.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from JPM/RBS. Terms: 7yr, 1.5-2% up 22.5-27.5% full pctns. UOP = repay portion 3.25% CB/hedge/gcp. $700m S&P BB rated PPCB manufacturer. Currently #6 in the world w/top 20 only controlling 43% (comps=SANM/FOXCONN).   PF cash = 390m debt = 695m (all 3.25% CB included for now). LTM EBITDA […]