Topic Archives: Convert New Issue Analysis

Convertible bonds new issues usually drive-by deals whereas most new high yield and loan issues go through a 1-2 week road show. This is becuase a large part of a convertible bond’s valuation is equity and requires less credit/indenture analysis. Most convertible bonds do not have financial covenants. Once a deal is announced, investors have a short amount of time (usually 1 day or less) to perform a quick and dirty analysis on the deal. Daiwa does a good job of this type of analysis and I have documented most of it here. Exceptions are clearly stated.

9/24/12 GTAT

9/24/12 GTAT $175m (15%) sen unsec cb coming tonight from UBS/MER/CS. Terms: 5yr, 3-3.5% up 25-30%, full pctns. UOP = hedge/gcp. Interesting equity story w/the replacement of glass w/sapphire on smart phones/tablets. Cash will be used 2 continue its diversification from solar (45% of CY12 sales coming from LED). We see credit as CCC. PF […]

9/19/12 XPO Logistics (XPO)

9/19/12 XPO Logistics (XPO)   $100m (+15m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS/DB/JEF. Terms: 5yr, 4-4.5% up 20-25%, s/c 4yr @130% (m/whole prem), full pctns. UOP = gcp/acq. Bradley Jacob’s equity play (who consolidated waste mgmt & equipment rental industries in 90s). He invested in XPO in 4Q11, currently owns 52% & did a […]

9/18/12 Ctrip.com (CTRP)

9/18/12 Ctrip.com (CTRP) $140m (+20m) sen unsec cb coming overnight from JPM. Terms: 5yr, 0-1% up 10-15%, 3yr put, full pctns. UOP=hedge/gcp. Btw reverse merger mess (SDTH, CMED, AOB, TRE, etc) & the performance of HMIN on way down (another Chinese cb into adr) this is a hard sell. Don’t get us wrong, this is […]

9/18/12 TICC Capital (TICC)

$100m (+15m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from BARC. Terms: 5yr, 7-7.5% up 10-15%, full pctns. UOP = gcp/sfv investment. Small $440m tech BDC w/$439 total inv (70% sen/sec, 29% CLO debt/eqty). LTM ebitda = 28, fcf = -38m, PF cash = 256m, debt 321m. Larger PSEC & AINV = comps (although both rated). 5yr […]

9/12/12 Sequenom (SQNM)

9/12/12 Sequenom (SQNM) Announcing a $100mm 5yr senior convert notes. Px talk is 4-3/4-5-1/4% up 25-30%, NC3, 140% softcall. Assuming 3.5% borrow cost on the stock, deal looks 1.5-2.5pts rich given lack of operating visibility on SQNM and limited liquidity runway this deal will give them. Using L+1000, implies TV of 97-1/2 to 3/4 and […]

9/12/12 Jarden (JAH)

9/12/12 Jarden (JAH) $450m (50m) sen sub cb coming tonight from BARC/JPM. Terms: 6y, 1.875 up 27.5-32.5. UOP=gcp and share buyback. Happy meal. CEO has SPAC history so savvy (1.875 on 6y sen sub w/credit tight/stk high & levering co to buyback stk all proof). Pari 7.5% 20 OAS = L+310 & 7.5% 17 z-spread […]

9/12/12 Meritage Homes (MTH)

9/12/12 Meritage Homes (MTH) $100m (15m) sen cb coming tonight from CITI/JPM/DB/BOA. Terms 20 yr 1.375-1.875% up 47.5-52.5%, 5 yr put call. UOP = gcp. Homebuilders in 2012 = REITs in 2007 (the more allocated the more resistance & the more we hear –ve basis. 5yr CDS 300 but illiquid. Both pari 7.731% 2017 and […]

9/4/12 Toll Brothers (TOL)

Toll (TOL) $250m (37.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from DB/Citi. Terms: 20 yr, 0.25-0.75% up 47.5-52.5%, 5.25/5yr put/call, full pctn. UOOP = gcp. Stk +148% since 10/11 low but still 44% off heady housing market of 2005. CDOs may need to make comeback w/lax lending standards before u see this ITM. LEN/DHI cheaper vs […]

8/22/12 Wright Medical (WMGI)

8/22/12 Wright Medical (WMGI) $200m (+30m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from JPM. Terms: 5yr 2.25-2.75% up 22.5-27.5, full pctns. UOP = hedge/buyback debt (incl $29 2014 cb). Small $830m orthopedic device maker w/PF debt = 201m (cb), cash=227m, LTM ebitda=54m, fcf = 31m, lev =3.7x. We’ll assume B & L+550. Small adv (335k), no […]

Molycorp (MCP) 8/16/12

Molycorp (MCP) $300m (+45m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS/CS. Terms: 5yr, 5-5-6% up 20-25%, s/c yr 3 @130% full pctns. UOP = w/capex repay Neo/Mat 5% 2017. Concurrent $172.5m stk placement and $138m brw facility. Will need O/R otherwise brw won’t be enough (placing w/help free up rate but not to GC). Capital […]