Topic Archives: Convert New Issue Analysis

Convertible bonds new issues usually drive-by deals whereas most new high yield and loan issues go through a 1-2 week road show. This is becuase a large part of a convertible bond’s valuation is equity and requires less credit/indenture analysis. Most convertible bonds do not have financial covenants. Once a deal is announced, investors have a short amount of time (usually 1 day or less) to perform a quick and dirty analysis on the deal. Daiwa does a good job of this type of analysis and I have documented most of it here. Exceptions are clearly stated.

12/5/12 Seacor (CKH)

$350m (52.5m) sen unsec cb coming Tues night from JPM/GS Terms: 5y, 1.75-2.25% up 22.5-27.5%, partial happy meal. Full pctns. UOP = note hedge/buyback up to 50m 2.875% CB/acq/gcp.   PF Cash = $550m PF Debt = $415m LTM EBITDA = $47m Although lev high (8.8x), ebitda expected to double over next two years, bringing […]

12/04/12 Volcano (VOLC)

$350m (52.5m) sen unsec cb coming Tues night from JPM/GS Terms: 5y, 1.75-2.25% up 22.5-27.5%, partial happy meal. Full pctns. UOP = note hedge/buyback up to 50m 2.875% CB/acq/gcp.   PF Cash = $550m PF Debt = $415m LTM EBITDA = $47m Although lev high (8.8x), ebitda expected to double over next two years, bringing […]

11/28/12 Meritor (MTOR)

  $150m (22.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from BNP/UBS/JPM/RBS. Terms: 14.5 yr, 7.5-8% up 156%, IP=90, put/call 8, full pctns. UOP = repay debt/gcp. 1:1 tender: issue of new cb (co has tripped loan covenant, has to reduce $150m 8.125% str8 & $200m 4.625% cb). Tender/new issue not contingent for holders (ie independent books) […]

11/20/12 Encore Capital (ECPG)

$100m (+15m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from MS. Terms: 5yr, 2-25 up 25-30%, full pctns. HAPPY MEAL UOP = $25m buyback/cb hedge/repay debt. Yet another stk+dividend CB play best suited to equity holders. $660 mkt cap portfolio manager of defaulted consumer loan & property liens. Acq TX based Propel for $186m cash in 05/12 […]

11/15/12 AK Steel

$125m (+18.75m) sen unsec cb coming tomorrow night from JPM/CS. Terms: 7 yr, 5.25-5.75 up 27.5-32.5, full pctns. Concurrent 25, stock & $350m 6 yr sen sec str8. UOP = repay asset backed debt/gcp. 7.625% 20 OAS about 920, 5yr CDS indicated 1030. We’ll assume B, L+1000. ADV = 1.2m Leaps illiguid, 2 yr 90d […]

11/7/12 iStar (SFI)

$100m (+15m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from ML/BARC/JPM. Terms 4yr, 3-3.5% up 37.5-42.5%, full pctns. Concurrent $250m 6yr str8. UOP = repay 6.5/8.625% str8. Illiquid 5.85% 17 OAS ~576bp, 5.875% 16 OAS ~460bp, 5yr CDS ~525, we’ll use L+500. Small 685 mkt cap, ADV = 760k, means we’ll discount vol to 25% & use […]

10/16/12 Walter Investment Management (WAC)

10/16/12 WAC $265m (+25m) sen sub cb coming weds from CS/MS/MER/BARC. Terms: 7 yr, 4.5-5% up 35%-40%, full pctns. Concurrent 4.5m (+675k) stk offer UOP = acq/repay second lien debt. Stk +132% since 05/12 & @highest pt > 2007 housing crash, issuing down cap/structure to refi makes obv sense 4 co. Current debt secured ($2.2B […]

10/11/12 Stillwater Mining (SWC)

10/11/12 SWC $300m (+45m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from CS/WFC. Terms: 20 yr 1.75-2.25% up 47.5-52.5% (hyper), 7 yr full pctns. UOP=repay 1.875% cb/gcp. $1.4B mkt cap palladium and platinum miner. Bought marathon in 2010 (sold 25% to Mitsubishi) & will need $500m in funding to YE16, bought Altar in 2011 & will need […]

10/03/12 Ares Capital (ARCC)

10/03/12 ARCC $200m ($30m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from JPM/GS/DB. Terms: 5.25y, 4.25-4.75 up 17.5-22.5, full pctns. UOP=repay dbt/gcp. 4th sequel in ARCC w/progressively worse cpns; 5.75% +17.5% in 01/11, 5.125% +17.5% in 03/11 & then 4.875% +17.5% in 03/12. Interestingly, all 3 priced off a 16c stk range over 14m period. They have […]

10/01/12 Wellpoint (WLP)

10/01/12 Wellpoint (WLP) $1.35B (+150m) sen unsec cb coming tomorrow from CS/MER/UBS. Terms: 30 yr, 2.5-3% up 20-25%, s/c 10 yr @150%, full pctns. UOP = gcp/stk buyback/debt repayment. Happy Meal. After ~950B of str8 IG issuance ytd, we get a shot. Recent A- (S&P) 4.65% ’43 str8 z-spread ~200 (UOP=AGP acq), 7 yr CDS […]