Topic Archives: Convert New Issue Analysis

Convertible bonds new issues usually drive-by deals whereas most new high yield and loan issues go through a 1-2 week road show. This is becuase a large part of a convertible bond’s valuation is equity and requires less credit/indenture analysis. Most convertible bonds do not have financial covenants. Once a deal is announced, investors have a short amount of time (usually 1 day or less) to perform a quick and dirty analysis on the deal. Daiwa does a good job of this type of analysis and I have documented most of it here. Exceptions are clearly stated.

02-20-13 Post (POST)

$175m (26.25m) pep/prfd coming tonight from MS/WFC/CS. Terms: 3.75-4.25% up 20-25%, s/c 5yr @130%, Partial pctns. UOP = repay t/loan & gcp. This one we do not get; Perp pfd w/poor t/over pctn, static b/even > call & withholding tax issues (will not be listed). 7.375% 22 str8 OAS 410 (credit color to follow). We’ll […]

02-20-13 Forstar (FOR)

$110 (+15m) sen unsec cb coming Wednesday from GS. Terms: 7y 3.5-4% up 32.5-7.5%, full pctns. UOP = repay line of credit/gcp, Co tried coming to market in June 2011 w/concurrent HY deal. HY deal struggled and both deals got pulled. CB terms on mids in 2011 were 3.75% up 25, now 3.75 up 35. […]

02-13-13 Blackrock Kelso Capital (BKCC)

$100m sen unsec cb coming overnight from CS/CITI/MER/DB. Terms: 5y 4.625-5.125% up 10-15%, full pctns. UOP = repay debt/gcp. Will be relatively quick: positives = potential BBB- rating, yield scramble will mean long only bond funds who can’t buy 9% up 0% stock will buy 4.875% up 12.5% w/theo SBV of 97.5 (PSEC/ARCC/STWD/NLY all cash […]

02-11-13 Starwood Financial (STWD)

***************** DAIWA NEW ISSUE COLOR: STWD ****************** $450m (+67.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from DB/BOA/C/CS/GS. TERMS:5y, 4.15-4.65% up 10%, full pctns. UOP=origination/purch of commercial mort. loans/gcp/potential funding of LNR purchase. STWD originates and invests in commercial mort. loans&other comm. real estate investments. LNR acq. should help compliment biz,    but they are taking on ~70bn […]

02-11-13 Molina (MOH)

New issue color: Molina (MOH) $325m (50m) sen unsec cb coming tonight from JPM/MER. Terms: 7 yr 1.125-1.625% up 27.5-32.5%, full protections. UOP hedge/$50m stock buy back/CB repurchase. $1.4B Medicaid player which w/benefit from rev growth & Medicaid expansion going forward. Finally seeing rate increases in TX, CA, FL , MI which was reflected in […]

02-05-13 Micron (MU)

New issue color MU All pctns. UOP = retire portion of 1.875% and gcp. Sweet spot for stock (A-D came with stock $7.35-$7.6) E’’s are now the first put after the ‘27s. We’ll use L+475 on E’s and 525 on F’s. As we’ver done with previous deals, we’ll keep vol at 35. Buy E’s and […]

01-24-13 Auxilium (AUXL)

$200m (25m) sen unsec cb coming Thurs from GS/JPM. Terms: 5.5y, 1.75-2.25% up 27.5-32.5, full protections. UOP=gcp/note hedge. Auxilium is a biopharma with 2 marketed products. Co has multiple collaborative agreements, but further in-house pipeline limited. As a result, will be looking to acquire later stage products using cash on hand. CF modest but slowly […]

01-24-13 Opko Health (OPK)

****************** DAIWA NEW ISSUE COLOR: OPK ****************** $150m sen unsec cb coming tonight fomr JEF. Terms: 20y, 2¾-3¼% up 17½-22½%, Puts 6,10,15y, S/C @ 130% 4-6y, H/C 6y, full pctn UOP=gcp. Equity + div trade w/no brw. Stk up 10x from ’09 low &+30% ytd. Another interesting eqty/crdt story; multiple projects like prostate cancer diagnostic/pt-of-care […]

01-24-13 Molycorp (MCP)

———-> Daiwa New Issue Credit Color: Molycorp <———— * Owner/operator of world’s largest rare earth deposit outside China. PF Cash    $727mm PF Debt    $1450mm LTM EBITDA  $(15)mm LTM FCF    $(819)mm Leverage   NM Mkt Cap     $1127mm * Liquidity concerns are back as co announced 1H13 rev & cf much lower than exp due to delays in ramping […]

01-23-13 KB Homes (KBH)

******************** DAIWA NEW ISSUE COLOR: KBH **************** $150m (+17.5m) sen unsec cb coming tonite from CITI/CS/MER/DB. Terms: 6y, 1⅜-1⅞% up 45-50%, NC 5.75yrs, full pctns. Concrnt $100m (+15m) stk plcmnt.UOP=gcp.TOL & MTH came 09/12. TOL ½% up 50% (better credit) & MTH 1⅞% up 47½% (good comp w/CITI lead left as well).Stk +158% from 06/12 […]